Republican delegates add up to a Cleveland showdown

The fallacy that an angered Republican electorate is rattling Washington, DC is in for a rude awakening.  I’m talking about the people doing the voting not the political elite masquerading as two different parties.

The narrative being pushed by the media is the Republican Establishment is feeling the wrath of its electorate but doesn’t understand why the base is angry.  The Republican base is proud of itself for sending a message to Washington.  The only problem is nothing will change.

If Donald Trump faces Hillary Clinton in a smack down that will be called an election, what’s the difference between the two?  If you forget the hype and soundbites and all things that make Trump fun; his positions on many of the issues closely resemble Clinton’s views.

The irony here is the Republican electorate is sending a protest candidate to be its standard bearer when, in fact, it is sending an exact replica of what it’s angry at in the first place.  He’s more colorful. He’s actually accomplished something in his life but his positions are very much in line with the existing parties.

He found an issue that resonates with the people and is riding the wave.  But ask any Trump supporter to outline his positions on any topic and you’ll get that same deer-in-the-headlight look that crosses a Clinton supporter’s face when asked the same question.

The conundrum most of us are having is akin to two teams you hate playing in the Super Bowl.  It becomes a matter of being satisfied one of them loses versus happy the other won.  The only problem is the country will still be in a downward spiral because the policies will be the same.

Both parties are nothing more than different shades of each other laughing at us as we buy their rhetoric of change.  The only thing that changes is the date of the passing days. I cannot stand the political establishment and that includes both parties.  But I dislike Trump as a candidate and potential president.

He is currently leading the Republican presidential sweepstakes with 316 delegates.  That puts him 921 delegates away from the first ballot nomination.  There are 1,744 delegates left meaning he needs to get 53% of the remaining delegates to win the nomination without a fight. I do not think that will happen.

Of the 1,744 delegates remaining, 391 of them come from winner-takes-all primaries.  That means there are 1,353 that will be distributed based on the percent of the vote garnered by each candidate.

OK, enough with the numbers.  I’m having flashbacks to Math word problems in grammar school I used to hate.  The bottom line is I do not think Trump will have enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot.

That will release all the delegates to vote for whomever they choose at the Republican Convention in Cleveland, July 18-21, 2016.  Will those at the convention nominate former governor Jeb Bush?  Failed presidential candidate Mitt Romney? Governor Chris Christie?

Part of me wants to see Trump win the nomination just to stick it to the establishment.  The other part of me wants to see Trump lose so he can taste a little humble pie and finally realize personality is not bigger than the presidency.

I am not a fan of the personality of Senator Ted Cruz but I do like his principles.  I do not trust Senator Marco Rubio to be anything more than another Republican Establishment hack.  It seems Governor John Kasich is upsetting too many establishment brokers to get their support.

The options are limited and the lesser of all evils at this point seems like Senator Cruz.  He is an ideologue that is so despised by the Republican Establishment that I feel he must be doing something right.  The last person I recall being so hated by the Republican Political Club was President Ronald Reagan.  I am not saying Senator Cruz is anywhere near the status of President Reagan but being so disliked by the Establishment is reason enough to pick him.

And the saddest thing of all is most people I am talking with are having the same struggle.  When choosing the lesser of two evils you are still stuck with an evil.

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About Armando Diana

A freelance writer for more than 25 years I covered the political scene in New Jersey which can prepare anyone for national politics. I have no fancy political degrees and I'm definitely not a lawyer - I am a common person who is fed up with politics. I want leaders focused on doing what is right for the country, not for them.
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